Expected Shortfall

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Synonym for CVaR. Two names, same calculation.

Quick Answer

What is Expected Shortfall?

Expected Shortfall is a synonym for CVaR — the expected magnitude of loss given that the loss exceeds the VaR threshold. Preferred over VaR by modern regulators (Basel III) because it is mathematically coherent and reveals tail-risk severity that VaR alone hides.

ES_α = E[Loss | Loss > VaR_α] ≡ CVaR_α

Formula

ESα = E[Loss | Loss ≥ VaRα]
Identical to CVaR formulation. Different industries prefer different names.

Expected Shortfall = CVaR = Conditional Tail Expectation. All the same.

Intuition — what is this number telling you?

"Expected Shortfall" is the name preferred in academic finance and Basel regulations. "CVaR" is the name preferred in practitioner literature and trading software. The math is identical.

Worked example

Step-by-step

See the CVaR worked example.

What's a good Expected Shortfall value?

See CVaR for ranges and interpretation.

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Related metrics

CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk)  ·  Value at Risk (VaR)  ·  CDaR (Conditional Drawdown at Risk)

Frequently asked questions about Expected Shortfall

Is Expected Shortfall the same as CVaR?

Yes — same calculation, different name.

Which name should I use?

In academic and regulatory contexts, Expected Shortfall. In trading and practitioner contexts, CVaR. They are interchangeable.

Does Foliolytic show Expected Shortfall?

Yes — labeled "CVaR" but mathematically identical to Expected Shortfall.

Why does Basel III prefer Expected Shortfall over VaR?

Because Expected Shortfall is subadditive (mathematically coherent) and captures tail severity. VaR is neither.

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Upload your brokerage CSV — Foliolytic computes Expected Shortfall plus 70+ other metrics using real historical prices, real Treasury yields, and real CPI data. Free, no signup, your data stays in your browser.

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